Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

Experimental study on reflection coefficient of curved perforated plate

A set of experiments is carried out in a towing tank to study the effects of the curvature of perforated plates on the wave reflection coefficient (C _r ). The curvature of a perforated plate can be changed by rotating a reference perforated plate aboutits origin according to the parabolic equation y=?x ². A plunger-type wave maker is used to generate regular waves. The reflection coefficients are calculated using Goda and Suzuki’s (1976) method. The results are compared with those of vertical or sloped passive wave absorbers. The comparison shows that a perforated plate with a curved profile is highly efficient in terms of reducing the wave reflection coefficient. A correlation is established to estimate the reflection coefficient of curved perforated plates as a function of both flow and geometry characteristics.     

A comprehensive study on the stability analysis of vehicle dynamics with pure/combined-slip tyre models

In this paper, a vehicle's lateral dynamic model is developed based on the pure and the combined-slip LuGre tyre models. Conventional vehicle's lateral dynamic methods derive handling models utilising linear tyres and pure-slip assumptions. The current article proposes a general lateral dynamic model, which takes the linear and nonlinear behaviours of the tyre into account using the pure and combined-slip assumptions separately. The developed methodology also incorporates various normal loads at each corner and provides a proper tyre–vehicle platform for control and estimation applications. Steady-state and transient LuGre models are also used in the model development and their responses are compared in different driving scenarios. Considering the fact that the vehicle dynamics is time-varying, the stability of the suggested time-varying model is investigated using an affine quadratic stability approach, and a novel approach to define the critical longitudinal speed is suggested and compared with that of conventional lateral stability methods. Simulations have been conducted and the results are used to validate the proposed method.     

带有挡板的注液舱室地震响应分析（英文）

In thispaper, the effects of a rigid baffle on the seismic response of liquid in a rigid cylindrical tank are evaluated. A baffle is an annular plate which supplies a kind of passive control on the effects of ground excitation. The contained liquid is assumed incompressible, inviscid and has irrotational motion. To estimate the seismic response, the method of superposition of modes has been applied. To analyze the rigid tank response, Laplace's equation is considered as the governing equation of the fluid domain, in both time and frequency domains. The boundary element method(BEM) is employed to evaluate the natural modes of liquid in a cylindrical tank. To gain this goal, the fluid domain is divided into two upper and lower parts partitioned by the baffle. Linearized kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions of the free surface of the contained liquid have been considered.     

Ship Roll Analysis Using CFD-Derived Roll Damping:Numerical and Experimental Study

This study investigates the roll decay of a fishing vessel by experiments and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. A fishing vessel roll decay is tes...     

Path-following in model predictive rollover prevention using front steering and braking

In this paper vehicle path-following in the presence of rollover risk is investigated. Vehicles with high centre of mass are prone to roll instability. Untripped rollover risk is increased in high centre of gravity vehicles and high-friction road condition. Researches introduce strategies to handle the short-duration rollover condition. In these researches, however, trajectory tracking is affected and not thoroughly investigated. This paper puts stress on tracking error from rollover prevention. A lower level model predictive front steering controller is adopted to deal with rollover and tracking error as a priority sequence. A brake control is included in lower level controller which directly obeys an upper level controller (ULC) command. The ULC manages vehicle speed regarding primarily tracking error. Simulation results show that the proposed control framework maintains roll stability while tracking error is confined to predefined error limit.     

Geometric stress distribution along the weld toe of the outer brace in two-planar tubular DKT-joints: Parametric study and deriving the SCF design equations

Regarding the research efforts expended so far on the calculation of stress concentration factors (SCFs) in tubular joints, two major shortcomings can be noted: (a) significant effort has been devoted to the study of SCFs in various uni-planar connections. Nevertheless, for multi-planar joints which cover the majority of practical applications, very few investigations have been reported due to the complexity and high cost involved; (b) majority of these research works focused on the study of SCFs at certain positions such as the saddle, crown toe, and crown heel, and they have ignored the hot-spot stress (HSS) at other positions along the weld toe. In the present paper, effects of dimensionless geometrical parameters on the SCF distribution along the weld toe of main (outer) braces in the axially loaded right-angle two-planar tubular DKT-joints are investigated. In order to study the multi-planar effect, SCF distribution in two-planar joints is compared with the distribution in a uni-planar joint having the same geometrical properties. A complete set of SCF database is constructed based on the two-planar DKT-joint Finite element models which are verified against experimental results and the predictions of Lloyd’s Register (LR) equations. The FE models cover a wide range of geometrical parameters. Six new SCF parametric formulae are developed through nonlinear regression analyses for the accurate and reliable fatigue design of two-planar DKT-joints under axial loads. An assessment study of these equations is conducted against the experimental data, the original FEM database and the acceptance criteria recommended by the UK Department of Energy.     

Reliability-based network flow estimation with day-to-day variation: A model validation on real large-scale urban networks

Day-to-day variation in the travel times of congested urban transportation networks is a frustrating phenomenon to the users of these networks. These users look pessimistically at the path travel times, and learn to spend additional time to safeguard against serious penalties that await late arrivals at the destinations. These additional expenses are charges similar to the tolls in system equilibrium flow problem, but may not be collected. With this conjecture, the user equilibrium (UE) formulation of congested network flow problem would lack some necessary factors in addressing appropriate path choices. This study, following a previous work proposing pessimistic UE (PUE) flow, aims to show how to measure this additional travel cost for a link, and investigates how different is PUE from UE, and when such differences are pronounced. Data are collected from the peak-hour travel times for the links of paths in the city of Tehran, to estimate the variance of travel times for typical links. Deterministic functions are obtained by calibrating the standard deviation of the daily variations of link travel times, and probabilistic functions by the technique of copula. UE and PUE traffic assignment models are built and applied to three large cities of Mashhad, Shiraz, and Tehran in Iran. The results show that the estimated flows by PUE model replicate the observed flows in screen lines much better than the UE model, particularly for longer trips. Since PUE is computationally equivalent to UE, this improvement is attained virtually at no cost.     

Flame propagation model for a rotary Atkinson cycle SI engine

The rotary Atkinson cycle engine includes two modes of combustion: combustion initiation and propagation in ignition chamber and then flame jet entrainment and propagation in expansion chamber. The turbulent flame propagation model is a predictive model for SI engines which could be developed for this type of combustion for the rotary Atkinson engine similar to the congenital engine with pre-chamber; in split combustion chamber SI engines, small amount of fuel is burned in pre-chamber while the fuel burned in ignition chamber of rotary Atkinson cycle is considerable. In this study a mathematical modeling of spherical flame propagation inside ignition chamber and new combined conical flame and spherical flame propagation model of a new two-stroke Atkinson cycle SI engine will be presented. The mathematical modeling is carried out using two-zone combustion analysis and the model also is validated against experimental tests and compared with previous study using non-predictive Weibe function model.     

Automated driving recognition technologies for adverse weather conditions

During automated driving in urban areas, decisions must be made while recognizing the surrounding environment using sensors such as camera, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), millimeter-wave radar (MWR), and the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The ability to drive under various environmental conditions is an important issue for automated driving on any road. In order to introduce the automated vehicles into the markets, the ability to evaluate various traffic conditions and navigate safely presents serious challenges. Another important challenge is the development of a robust recognition system can account for adverse weather conditions. Sun glare, rain, fog, and snow are adverse weather conditions that can occur in the driving environment. This paper summarizes research focused on automated driving technologies and discuss challenges to identifying adverse weather and other situations that make driving difficult, thus complicating the introduction of automated vehicles to the market.